Slovácko 0-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Slovácko welcome FK Jablonec to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slovácko, 0 for FK Jablonec and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 58% versus FK Jablonec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 65% | FK Jablonec 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.73 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.939 / defence 0.830 | FK Jablonec attack 1.055 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.414. FK Jablonec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Slovácko games / 38 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 46% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 25%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | FK Jablonec 4.00. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 50% | FK Jablonec 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 46% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Slovácko 1.73 / FK Jablonec 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.939 / def 0.830 | FK Jablonec attack 1.055 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Slovácko 0 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovácko vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 46% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Slovácko and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): Slovácko 1W | Draws 0 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in?
Slovácko (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.94) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.49
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.96
1.24
FK Jablonec xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
22.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Slovácko and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.24 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 9D 11L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.95 PPG from 43 outings (7W 20D 16L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slovácko's home form reads 15W 2D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (2W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.93 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 7W 20D 16L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovácko's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.35 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Slovácko or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slovácko's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovácko
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 45%, FK Jablonec 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Slovácko) and 50% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Slovácko's recent matches and 55% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovácko 0-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.73 xG and FK Jablonec 1.24 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.94 / defence 0.83 against FK Jablonec attack 1.05 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 46% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 25%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a FK Jablonec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 65%, FK Jablonec 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with FK Jablonec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.