Pardubice 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Pardubice (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Pardubice have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bohemians 1905 are 1.00 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pardubice, 0 for Bohemians 1905 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Pardubice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 54% versus Bohemians 1905 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 63% | Bohemians 1905 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.81 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.721 / defence 1.163 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.023 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.414. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians 1905's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Pardubice games / 38 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 15% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 56%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 6.67 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 40% | Bohemians 1905 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 15% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Pardubice 0.81 / Bohemians 1905 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.721 / def 1.163 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.023 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Bohemians 1905 xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 15% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 56% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.72x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.02x) against Pardubice's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
15%
6.58
29%
3.44
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.49
1.68
Bohemians 1905 xG
6.58
15%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
3%
35.43
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.68 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pardubice's recent record stands at 10W 10D 23L from 43 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 19L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Pardubice against 1.16 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 4W 9D 8L from 21 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pardubice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.35 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 10W 10D 23L in their last 43 games (0.93 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
2
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-2 Pardubice.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 43%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pardubice) and 57% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 43% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pardubice's recent matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pardubice's recent games and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Pardubice 0-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.81 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.68 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.72 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 0.76, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 15% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 56%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 63%, Bohemians 1905 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.93 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.