Pardubice 0-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Slovácko travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 February 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Pardubice have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Pardubice) versus 1.40 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 65% and Slovácko 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 70% | Slovácko 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.98 xG and Slovácko 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.677 / defence 1.533 | Slovácko attack 1.002 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.198. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Pardubice games / 21 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 20% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 58%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Slovácko 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 40% | Slovácko 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 20% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Pardubice 0.98 / Slovácko 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.677 / def 1.533 | Slovácko attack 1.002 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Slovácko xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slovácko kick off?
Pardubice vs Slovácko kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Pardubice 0 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Pardubice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slovácko part of?
Pardubice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 20% chance of winning, Slovácko a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pardubice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Slovácko (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
20%
5.06
23%
4.42
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.82
1.84
Slovácko xG
5.06
20%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
3%
31.91
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.84 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice's recent record stands at 4W 6D 10L from 20 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 6L across 20 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovácko by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 1W 4D 5L from 10 games — 0.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovácko's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.85 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Slovácko in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 11W 3D 6L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.70 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Slovácko in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 40%, Slovácko 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Pardubice and 80% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Pardubice's games and 80% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Pardubice's matches and 80% of Slovácko's.
Do Pardubice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pardubice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Slovácko finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.98 xG and Slovácko 1.84 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slovácko landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.68 / defence 1.53 against Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 20% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 58%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 70%, Slovácko 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovácko's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.