Plzen vs FK Jablonec Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 36%, yet the head-to-head data favours Plzen — this Plzen vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plzen stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plzen at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FK Jablonec have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FK Jablonec away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.50 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Plzen hold a clear advantage across the 10 H2H matches in our data, with 7 wins compared to 0 for FK Jablonec and 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.1 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2026, ended Plzen 3–2 FK Jablonec — a Plzen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Plzen and goals — 7 wins from 10 H2H matches and an average of 4.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 51% versus FK Jablonec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 57% | FK Jablonec 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.25 xG and FK Jablonec 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.079 / defence 1.125 | FK Jablonec attack 0.916 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Data: built from Plzen's last 44 games and FK Jablonec's last 44.
Result probabilities: Plzen 32% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 36%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 3.11 | Draw 3.16 | FK Jablonec 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 10 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 70% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 32% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Plzen 1.25 / FK Jablonec 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.079 / def 1.125 | FK Jablonec attack 0.916 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Doosan Arena.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 32% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 44 games and FK Jablonec's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
32%
3.11
32%
3.16
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.58
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Plzen and 1.33 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 23W 14D 12L from 49 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 17L across 49 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.69 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 12W 6D 6L from their last 24 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 11W 2D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.24 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; FK Jablonec in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 games (1.69 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 22W 10D 17L in their last 49 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.75 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: FK Jablonec 2-3 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 58%, FK Jablonec 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Plzen) and 33% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 38%; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Plzen's recent matches and 29% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Plzen's recent games and 33% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Plzen's recent matches and 75% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.