Pardubice 0-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CFIG Arena plays host to Pardubice versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pardubice's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pardubice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Pardubice. A 0.60 PPG lead over České Budějovice (0.80 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Pardubice, 3 for České Budějovice and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2024, ended Pardubice 3–1 České Budějovice — a Pardubice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 44% versus České Budějovice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 42% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 2.32 xG and České Budějovice 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.930 / defence 1.026 | České Budějovice attack 0.919 / defence 1.695. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.173. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.695 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pardubice's projected output up. Data: built from Pardubice's last 45 games and České Budějovice's last 45.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 63% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 15%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 1.58 | Draw 4.69 | České Budějovice 6.47. The model has a clear lean to Pardubice (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.32 / 1.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pardubice's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 40% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 63% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Pardubice 2.32 / České Budějovice 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.930 / def 1.026 | České Budějovice attack 0.919 / def 1.695 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
České Budějovice xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs České Budějovice kick off?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Pardubice 0 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Pardubice vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs České Budějovice part of?
Pardubice vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 63% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pardubice and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pardubice vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.92x) against Pardubice's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 45 games and České Budějovice's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.69
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.42
1.10
České Budějovice xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
10%
10.18
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
2%
65.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.10 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 9D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 0.70 PPG from 50 outings (8W 11D 31L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Pardubice against 0.70 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 7W 5D 12L across their last 24 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.25 points per game from their last 24 away games (0W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pardubice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.94 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 games (1.02 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 11D 31L in their last 50 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or České Budějovice away?
Pardubice's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.08 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pardubice and České Budějovice, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 2W 3D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and České Budějovice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, České Budějovice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pardubice) and 67% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 38% of games; České Budějovice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and České Budějovice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 62% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 67% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Pardubice's recent matches and 79% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pardubice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Pardubice and České Budějovice drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 2.32 xG and České Budějovice 1.10 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pardubice fell 2.3 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against České Budějovice attack 0.92 / defence 1.70, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 63% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 15%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 42%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
České Budějovice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.02 PPG, České Budějovice 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.