Dukla Praha 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sparta Praha travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 3W 0D 4L from 7 Czech Liga appearances (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dukla Praha at 0.80 PPG versus Sparta Praha's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dukla Praha, 1 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Sparta Praha winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 40% versus Sparta Praha 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 53% | Sparta Praha 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.99 xG and Sparta Praha 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.797 / defence 1.232 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.196. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Dukla Praha games / 45 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 18% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 55%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Dukla Praha 43% | Sparta Praha 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights