Teplice 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Teplice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Teplice, 1.20 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Teplice register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sigma Olomouc in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 55% and Sigma Olomouc 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 49% | Sigma Olomouc 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.66 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.069 / defence 1.370 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.086 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.221. Data: 45 Teplice games / 45 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 40%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 80% | Sigma Olomouc 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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