Karviná 1-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karviná at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Pardubice meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Karviná's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná at Městský Stadión this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.
Pardubice have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Karviná. A 0.80 PPG lead over Pardubice (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Pardubice have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Karviná's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Karviná winning.
It is worth noting that Pardubice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 51% versus Pardubice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 55% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.38 xG and Pardubice 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.886 / defence 0.883 | Pardubice attack 0.826 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.151. Data: 44 Karviná games / 44 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 47% | Draw 34% | Pardubice 20%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Pardubice 5.00. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Pardubice lead the H2H ledger, but Karviná carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Karviná are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 40% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 47% | Draw 34% | Pardubice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Karviná 1.38 / Pardubice 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.886 / def 0.883 | Pardubice attack 0.826 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Karviná (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Pardubice xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Pardubice kick off?
Karviná vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Karviná 1 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Karviná vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Pardubice part of?
Karviná vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 47% chance of winning, Pardubice a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Karviná and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Pardubice?
Record (5 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 4W.
What form are Karviná and Pardubice in?
Karviná (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Karviná vs Pardubice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karviná's attack rating (0.89) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.83x) against Karviná's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
47%
2.15
34%
2.98
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.22
0.84
Pardubice xG
2.15
47%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
5%
19.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Karviná and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Karviná and 0.84 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 12D 23L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.04 PPG from 49 outings (14W 9D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Karviná against 1.04 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Karviná's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 9D 26L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Pardubice away?
Karviná's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.24 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pardubice won 4-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Karviná
0
Draws
7
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Pardubice have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Pardubice 1-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 48%, Pardubice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Karviná) and 52% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 36% of games; Pardubice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Karviná's recent matches and 44% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Karviná's recent games and 52% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Pardubice tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Pardubice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Pardubice 1-0 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.38 xG and Pardubice 0.84 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Pardubice attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 47% | Draw 34% | Pardubice 20%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 55%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.10 PPG, Pardubice 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.