FK Jablonec 5-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's home record at Stadion Střelnice: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FK Jablonec. A 1.10 PPG lead over České Budějovice (1.40 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FK Jablonec lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 51% versus České Budějovice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 43% | České Budějovice 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.250 / defence 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.826 / defence 1.501. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.156. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.501 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 FK Jablonec games / 46 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | České Budějovice 7%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.28 | Draw 6.67 | České Budějovice 14.29. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 40% | České Budějovice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | České Budějovice 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 53% | xG FK Jablonec 2.83 / České Budějovice 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.250 / def 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.826 / def 1.501 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.79
České Budějovice xG
53%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
FK Jablonec 5 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice part of?
FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 78% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
Record (7 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 2 | České Budějovice 3W.
What form are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.25) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.83x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.49
7%
15.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.62
0.79
České Budějovice xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.49
15%
Draw
15.36
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
6%
16.88
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.79 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 17D 18L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice's form line: 8W 12D 31L from 51 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L).
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 7D 18L from 25 away games — 0.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.92 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 12D 31L in their last 51 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or České Budějovice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.64 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.28 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 60%, České Budějovice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 64% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; České Budějovice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FK Jablonec's matches and 64% of České Budějovice's.
Do FK Jablonec and České Budějovice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 5-0 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat České Budějovice 5-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.79 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.50, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | České Budějovice 7%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 43%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
České Budějovice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.