Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lokotrans Aréna plays host to Mlada Boleslav versus Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 8). Kick-off: Thursday 5 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mlada Boleslav at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slovan Liberec's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.30 for Slovan Liberec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Slovan Liberec — a Slovan Liberec win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Slovan Liberec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Slovan Liberec 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.47 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.118 / defence 0.894 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.123 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.187. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 46 games and Slovan Liberec's last 46.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 41% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 28%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.42 | Draw 3.28 | Slovan Liberec 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Slovan Liberec's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Thursday 5 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 41% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.47 / Slovan Liberec 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.118 / def 0.894 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.123 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 0 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 41% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.12x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (1.12x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 46 games and Slovan Liberec's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.28
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
Slovan Liberec xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.19 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 14D 17L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.25 PPG from 48 outings (15W 15D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.25 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 23 away games (4W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovan Liberec's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.48 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Slovan Liberec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 15W 15D 18L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.65 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 4-0 Slovan Liberec on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mlada Boleslav
4
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Slovan Liberec 3-0 Mlada Boleslav.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 61%, Slovan Liberec 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Mlada Boleslav and 48% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 61% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 48% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Slovan Liberec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 70% of Slovan Liberec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Slovan Liberec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.47 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovan Liberec landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 41% | Draw 30% | Slovan Liberec 28%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Slovan Liberec 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.35 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.