Bohemians 1905 0-3 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Ďolíček — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.40 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Hradec Králové 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Hradec Králové trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Hradec Králové 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.35 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.020 / defence 1.320 | Hradec Králové attack 0.662 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.166. Data: 46 Bohemians 1905 games / 46 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 70% | Hradec Králové 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights