Plzen 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Plzen (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Teplice.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Teplice travel to Doosan Aréna to take on Plzen. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Plzen — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Plzen's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Doosan Aréna this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Plzen, 1 for Teplice and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Plzen winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Plzen in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Teplice in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 54% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 58% | Teplice 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.75 xG and Teplice 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.287 / defence 0.764 | Teplice attack 0.923 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.168. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Plzen games / 46 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plzen 58% | Draw 26% | Teplice 16%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 50% | Teplice 40% BTTS from recent games.

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