Karviná 0-3 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and Mlada Boleslav meet at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Karviná (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Karviná's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Mlada Boleslav arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Karviná's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) — Karviná have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Karviná, 3 for Mlada Boleslav and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Karviná 4–2 Mlada Boleslav — a Karviná win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 62% and Mlada Boleslav 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 66% | Mlada Boleslav 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.44 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.000 / defence 1.204 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.066 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Karviná's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mlada Boleslav's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 59 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 59.
Result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 38%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.90 | Draw 3.60 | Mlada Boleslav 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karviná 70% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Karviná 1.44 / Mlada Boleslav 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.000 / def 1.204 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.066 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Karviná 0 - 3 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 35% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Karviná and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karviná's attack rating (1.00) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.07x) against Karviná's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 59 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
35%
2.90
28%
3.60
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.96
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Karviná and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Karviná and 1.51 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karviná's recent record stands at 23W 11D 27L from 61 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 25L across 61 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Karviná against 1.15 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 11W 6D 12L from their last 29 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 8W 8D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.39 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Karviná (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 23W 11D 27L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 19D 25L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Karviná's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.34 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Karviná and Mlada Boleslav, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won Karviná 0-3 Mlada Boleslav on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Karviná
2
Draws
4
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Karviná 0-3 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 55%, Mlada Boleslav 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Karviná) and 62% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Karviná's games and 66% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Karviná and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Karviná's matches and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Karviná and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Karviná's recent matches and 72% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Karviná 0-3 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.44 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Karviná fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.07 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 35% | Draw 28% | Mlada Boleslav 38%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 66%, Mlada Boleslav 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.31 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.