Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Group - 1 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Baník Ostrava at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mlada Boleslav are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 43% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.878 / defence 1.097 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.165 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Baník Ostrava games / 60 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 45%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Mlada Boleslav 2.22. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Baník Ostrava dominate the H2H record, yet Mlada Boleslav are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 30% | Mlada Boleslav 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 1 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.14 / Mlada Boleslav 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.878 / def 1.097 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.165 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is a Relegation Group - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 27% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Baník Ostrava 4W | Draws 3 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.88x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
27%
3.69
27%
3.64
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.67
1.53
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
6%
17.07
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.53 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 27W 12D 26L from 65 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 27L across 65 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.43 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 16W 4D 12L from 32 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 9W 8D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.42 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 26L in their last 65 games (1.43 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 19W 19D 27L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.62 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 44%, Mlada Boleslav 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Baník Ostrava) and 62% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Baník Ostrava have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 62% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Relegation Group - 1, as Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.53 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 45%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.43 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.