Hradec Králové 3-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Hradec Králové welcome Pardubice to Malšovická Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Malšovická Aréna this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 3 for Pardubice and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hradec Králové 37% | Pardubice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.21 xG and Pardubice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.824 / defence 0.862 | Pardubice attack 0.808 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.197. Data: 49 Hradec Králové games / 49 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 32% | Pardubice 24%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Pardubice 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Pardubice lead the H2H ledger, but Hradec Králové carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 30% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 32% | Pardubice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Hradec Králové 1.21 / Pardubice 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.824 / def 0.862 | Pardubice attack 0.808 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Pardubice xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Hradec Králové 3 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 44% chance of winning, Pardubice a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hradec Králové and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Record (6 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.82) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.10
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.04
0.83
Pardubice xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.83 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 20W 14D 20L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 14W 13D 27L from 54 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.37 PPG, Pardubice on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 5D 14L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.04 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 14D 20L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Pardubice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.73 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pardubice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hradec Králové) and 46% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 42% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 46% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Pardubice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Pardubice 3-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.21 xG and Pardubice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 32% | Pardubice 24%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 37%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.37 PPG, Pardubice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.