Hradec Králové 3-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hradec Králové welcome Pardubice to Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pardubice stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pardubice away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 3 for Pardubice and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Hradec Králové 1–2 Pardubice — a Pardubice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hradec Králové 37% | Pardubice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.21 xG and Pardubice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.824 / defence 0.862 | Pardubice attack 0.808 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.197. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 49 games and Pardubice's last 49.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 32% | Pardubice 24%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.29 | Draw 3.10 | Pardubice 4.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hradec Králové's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 30% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 32% | Pardubice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.21 / Pardubice 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.824 / def 0.862 | Pardubice attack 0.808 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Pardubice xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Hradec Králové 3 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 44% chance of winning, Pardubice a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hradec Králové and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Hradec Králové vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.82) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 49 games and Pardubice's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
44%
2.29
32%
3.10
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.04
0.83
Pardubice xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.83 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 20W 14D 20L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Pardubice's form line: 14W 13D 27L from 54 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.37 PPG, Pardubice on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 26 home games (13W 6D 7L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 5D 14L from their last 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.04 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 14D 20L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Pardubice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.73 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pardubice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won Hradec Králové 3-0 Pardubice.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Pardubice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hradec Králové) and 46% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 42% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 46% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 69% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Pardubice 3-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.21 xG and Pardubice 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.82 / defence 0.86 against Pardubice attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 32% | Pardubice 24%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 37%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.37 PPG, Pardubice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.