Sigma Olomouc 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sigma Olomouc (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sigma Olomouc face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc host Zlin at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sigma Olomouc have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Zlin have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Zlin's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sigma Olomouc: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Zlin, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Zlin — a Sigma Olomouc win.
The head-to-head data gives Sigma Olomouc an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 57% and Zlin 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 60% | Zlin 62%). Note also that Zlin surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Sigma Olomouc recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 2.12 xG and Zlin 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.035 / defence 0.952 | Zlin attack 0.744 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.203. Zlin's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 42 games and Zlin's last 42.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 67% | Draw 19% | Zlin 14%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.50 | Draw 5.14 | Zlin 7.18. The model has a clear lean to Sigma Olomouc (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Zlin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 60% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 67% | Draw 19% | Zlin 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 2.12 / Zlin 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.035 / def 0.952 | Zlin attack 0.744 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Zlin xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 67% chance of winning, Zlin a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zlin will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 42 games and Zlin's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.14
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.98
0.85
Zlin xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
60.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.85 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 13D 15L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.91 PPG from 47 outings (9W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 23 away games (1W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.19 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 66%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Zlin have gone 9W 16D 22L in their last 47 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Zlin away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.52 PPG; Zlin away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Zlin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Zlin 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 61%, Zlin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sigma Olomouc and 56% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Zlin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 56% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 56% of Zlin's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 61% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sigma Olomouc's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 2.12 xG and Zlin 0.85 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Zlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 67% | Draw 19% | Zlin 14%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 60%, Zlin 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.