FK Jablonec 5-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 78% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
FK Jablonec's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
České Budějovice have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FK Jablonec. A 1.10 PPG lead over České Budějovice (1.40 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, České Budějovice edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended FK Jablonec 2–2 České Budějovice — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 51% versus České Budějovice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 43% | České Budějovice 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.250 / defence 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.826 / defence 1.501. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.156. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.501 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FK Jablonec's projected output up. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 46 games and České Budějovice's last 46.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | České Budějovice 7%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.28 | Draw 6.49 | České Budějovice 15.36. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (78%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | České Budějovice 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG FK Jablonec 2.83 / České Budějovice 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.250 / def 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.826 / def 1.501 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.79
České Budějovice xG
53%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
FK Jablonec 5 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice part of?
FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 78% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FK Jablonec and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.25) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.83x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 46 games and České Budějovice's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.49
7%
15.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.62
0.79
České Budějovice xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.49
15%
Draw
15.36
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
6%
16.88
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.79 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, FK Jablonec have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 17D 18L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
České Budějovice's form line: 8W 12D 31L from 51 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, FK Jablonec are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FK Jablonec have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 25 home games (11W 8D 6L).
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 0W 7D 18L from their last 25 away games — 0.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.92 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 12D 31L in their last 51 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or České Budějovice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.64 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.28 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won FK Jablonec 5-0 České Budějovice on 4 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
3
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 4, České Budějovice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: České Budějovice 2-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and České Budějovice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 60%, České Budějovice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 64% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; České Budějovice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and České Budějovice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FK Jablonec's matches and 64% of České Budějovice's.
Do FK Jablonec and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 76% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 5-0 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat České Budějovice 5-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.83 xG and České Budějovice 0.79 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.83 / defence 1.50, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 78% | Draw 15% | České Budějovice 7%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 43%, České Budějovice 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
České Budějovice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.