Dukla Praha 1-4 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Slovan Liberec at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 1D 5L from 8 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.88 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Juliska. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.88 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dukla Praha 0.88 PPG, Slovan Liberec 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Slovan Liberec in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 25% versus Slovan Liberec 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | Slovan Liberec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.41 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.869 / defence 1.155 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.015 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.099. Data: 8 Dukla Praha games / 38 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 40% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 34%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Slovan Liberec 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dukla Praha at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Dukla Praha 25% | Slovan Liberec 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 40% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Dukla Praha 1.41 / Slovan Liberec 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.869 / def 1.155 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.015 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Dukla Praha 1 - 4 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 40% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.87) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.88
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.70
1.29
Slovan Liberec xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.29 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.88 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dukla Praha have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Dukla Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dukla Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.38 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dukla Praha have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Slovan Liberec in 62%.
Defensively: Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Dukla Praha's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 2.00 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Slovan Liberec won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
2
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Dukla Praha 1-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dukla Praha see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dukla Praha 0% BTTS, Slovan Liberec 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Dukla Praha) and 67% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Dukla Praha have failed to score in 33% of games; Slovan Liberec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 67% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovan Liberec run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Dukla Praha 1-4 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.41 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.29 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Slovan Liberec outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 40% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 34%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Slovan Liberec 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.88 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.