Slovan Liberec 0-5 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadion u Nisy — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 0 for FK Jablonec and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 58% versus FK Jablonec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 51% | FK Jablonec 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and FK Jablonec 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / defence 0.930 | FK Jablonec attack 0.837 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.184. Data: 39 Slovan Liberec games / 39 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | FK Jablonec 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Slovan Liberec 60% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.26 / FK Jablonec 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / def 0.930 | FK Jablonec attack 0.837 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FK Jablonec xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 5 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 43% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
Record (5 meetings): Slovan Liberec 1W | Draws 4 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.11x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.84x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.21
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.19
0.92
FK Jablonec xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.92 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 13D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (13W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.29 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Slovan Liberec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.29 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.74 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 0-5 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovan Liberec
5
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 53%, FK Jablonec 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Slovan Liberec) and 37% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 47% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 37% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovan Liberec 0-5 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and FK Jablonec 0.92 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.92 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against FK Jablonec attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 51%, FK Jablonec 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.27 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.