Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians 1905 face Zbrojovka Brno.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zbrojovka Brno travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Zbrojovka Brno's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across their last 6 road games (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.50 PPG versus Zbrojovka Brno's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2026, ended Bohemians 1905 2–2 Zbrojovka Brno — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Zbrojovka Brno 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 43% | Zbrojovka Brno 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.34 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.804 / defence 0.599 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.742 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Zbrojovka Brno's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.57. Bohemians 1905 have a tight defence (rating 0.599), which is pulling Zbrojovka Brno's projected output down. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 44 games and Zbrojovka Brno's last 14.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 33% | Zbrojovka Brno 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.88 | Draw 3.02 | Zbrojovka Brno 7.35. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Zbrojovka Brno's lower xG of 0.57 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Zbrojovka Brno's last 6 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 home games) | Zbrojovka Brno 33% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 33% | Zbrojovka Brno 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.34 / Zbrojovka Brno 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.804 / def 0.599 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.742 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Zbrojovka Brno xG
35%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 53% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 14% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.80) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 44 games and Zbrojovka Brno's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 2-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
53%
1.88
33%
3.02
14%
7.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
1.91
0.57
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
7.35
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
30%
3.33
4%
28.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.57 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 5D 4L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.43 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across their last 6 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 6 away games (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.21 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Zbrojovka Brno (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 2.00 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Zbrojovka Brno 2-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bohemians 1905 17% BTTS, Zbrojovka Brno 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Bohemians 1905 and 50% for Zbrojovka Brno.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 33% of games; Zbrojovka Brno in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 33% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 50% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.