Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Zbrojovka Brno travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Dolicek this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zbrojovka Brno stand at 5W 1D 3L from 9 Czech Liga matches — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Zbrojovka Brno — 0.58 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.78 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Zbrojovka Brno 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Zbrojovka Brno 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.42 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.904 / defence 0.779 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.713 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.261. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 9 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 52% | Draw 31% | Zbrojovka Brno 17%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.92 | Draw 3.23 | Zbrojovka Brno 5.88. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zbrojovka Brno (1.78 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Zbrojovka Brno 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 52% | Draw 31% | Zbrojovka Brno 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.42 / Zbrojovka Brno 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.904 / def 0.779 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.713 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Zbrojovka Brno xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 52% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 1 | Zbrojovka Brno 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 5W-1D-3L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.90) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.22
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.12
0.70
Zbrojovka Brno xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.70 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zbrojovka Brno's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 5W 1D 3L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.67 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Zbrojovka Brno been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zbrojovka Brno in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
1
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 2 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bohemians 1905 33% BTTS, Zbrojovka Brno 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Bohemians 1905 and 33% for Zbrojovka Brno.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Zbrojovka Brno in 33%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 33% of games; Zbrojovka Brno in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 0% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 33% of Zbrojovka Brno's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.