Bohemians 1905 3-3 Slovácko – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Slovácko 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bohemians 1905 trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Slovácko trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 50% | Slovácko 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.81 xG and Slovácko 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.950 / defence 1.171 | Slovácko attack 0.820 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.199. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bohemians 1905 games / 45 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 51% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Slovácko 4.55. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 70% | Slovácko 30%.

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