Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sigma Olomouc face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Slovácko travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sigma Olomouc's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slovácko — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.50 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Slovácko and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–1 Slovácko — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 67% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 61% | Slovácko 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.78 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.945 / defence 1.361 | Slovácko attack 0.849 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.204. Slovácko's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sigma Olomouc's projected output up. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 1.361 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slovácko's projected output up. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 44 games and Slovácko's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 28%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.24 | Draw 3.64 | Slovácko 3.59. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 80% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.78 / Slovácko 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.945 / def 1.361 | Slovácko attack 0.849 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Slovácko xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Wednesday 27 November 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.94x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 44 games and Slovácko's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.64
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
3.18
1.39
Slovácko xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
5%
21.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.39 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 11D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (16W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.22 PPG, Slovácko on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.22 points per game from their last 23 away games (8W 4D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.11 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovácko away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.43 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Slovácko in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Slovácko have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Slovácko 1-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 65%, Slovácko 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sigma Olomouc and 52% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 39% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 52% of Slovácko's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 83% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Slovácko 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.78 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 1.36 against Slovácko attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 28%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 61%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.22 PPG, Slovácko 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.