Teplice 0-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 1W 1D 6L across 8 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Czech Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.71 PPG across 7 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.86 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 1.21 PPG clear of the hosts (1.71 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Teplice have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Sigma Olomouc in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 86%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 71% and Sigma Olomouc 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 71% | Sigma Olomouc 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.46 xG and Sigma Olomouc 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.801 / defence 1.241 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.264 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.310. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sigma Olomouc have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Teplice games / 7 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 27% | Draw 21% | Sigma Olomouc 51%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.70 | Draw 4.76 | Sigma Olomouc 1.96. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 67% | Sigma Olomouc 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 27% | Draw 21% | Sigma Olomouc 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Teplice 1.46 / Sigma Olomouc 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.801 / def 1.241 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.264 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Sigma Olomouc xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 0 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 27% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.12 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 2.86 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.80) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.26x) against Teplice's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
27%
3.67
21%
4.69
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.51
2.05
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
13%
7.80
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
3%
28.64
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Teplice and 2.05 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 1W 1D 5L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 1L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sigma Olomouc by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Teplice heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Teplice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 2.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.00 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Teplice, 100% for Sigma Olomouc — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Teplice and 100% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Teplice's games and 100% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Teplice's matches and 100% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Sigma Olomouc finished level at 0-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.46 xG and Sigma Olomouc 2.05 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.26 / defence 1.35, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 27% | Draw 21% | Sigma Olomouc 51%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 71%, Sigma Olomouc 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.