Bohemians 1905 vs Artis Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Artis encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bohemians 1905 host Artis at Dolicek in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Artis have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Artis's away record over their last 8 away games: 2W 2D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Bohemians 1905 have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Artis 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2026, ended Bohemians 1905 2–1 Artis — a Bohemians 1905 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).

Artis in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 50% versus Artis 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 50% | Artis 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.32 xG and Artis 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.803 / defence 0.597 | Artis attack 0.908 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.292. Artis's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Bohemians 1905 have a tight defence (rating 0.597), which is pulling Artis's projected output down. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 44 games and Artis's last 14.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 49% | Draw 34% | Artis 17%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.04 | Draw 2.97 | Artis 5.78. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Artis's last 8 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 home games) | Artis 62% (last 8 away games).

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