Baník Ostrava 0-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Baník Ostrava face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Slavia Praha travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baník Ostrava stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Slavia Praha have recorded 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slavia Praha — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Slavia Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Baník Ostrava.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Baník Ostrava 0–2 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 8 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 44% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 43% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.174 / defence 1.029 | Slavia Praha attack 1.338 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.191. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.338, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 56 games and Slavia Praha's last 56.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 42%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 3.23 | Draw 3.74 | Slavia Praha 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.64) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Baník Ostrava's last 10 home games and Slavia Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.38 / Slavia Praha 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.174 / def 1.029 | Slavia Praha attack 1.338 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 31% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.17) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 56 games and Slavia Praha's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.74
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.02
1.64
Slavia Praha xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
6%
16.68
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.64 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 12D 22L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.52 PPG from 61 outings (48W 10D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 17W 4D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.17 points per game from their last 30 away games (19W 8D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.21 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 27W 12D 22L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 48W 10D 3L in their last 61 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.83 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slavia Praha have won each of the latest 10 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 5-0 Baník Ostrava.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 47%, Slavia Praha 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Baník Ostrava) and 43% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 47% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 43% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 70% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 0-2 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against Slavia Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 42%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 43%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.