Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 39%, yet in-form Sigma Olomouc provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sigma Olomouc travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Sigma Olomouc's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Baník Ostrava, 3 for Sigma Olomouc and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Baník Ostrava 0–1 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 46% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 44% | Sigma Olomouc 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.881 / defence 1.161 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.903 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.268. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 50 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 50.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 39% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 35%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.55 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sigma Olomouc (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 50% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 39% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.43 / Sigma Olomouc 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.881 / def 1.161 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.903 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sigma Olomouc xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava 2 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 39% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 50 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.85
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.75
1.33
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.33 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 55 games, going 25W 11D 19L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.36 PPG from 55 outings (20W 15D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baník Ostrava on 1.56 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 15W 3D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 25W 11D 19L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 20L in their last 55 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.78 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won Baník Ostrava 0-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 48%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Baník Ostrava) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 74% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Sigma Olomouc 2-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.43 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.33 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 39% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 35%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 44%, Sigma Olomouc 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.56 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.