Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baník Ostrava face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Mlada Boleslav travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Baník Ostrava at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Mlada Boleslav have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baník Ostrava 0.80 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Mlada Boleslav 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Baník Ostrava 1–1 Mlada Boleslav — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 44% versus Mlada Boleslav 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Mlada Boleslav 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.948 / defence 1.109 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.935 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.114. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Baník Ostrava's projected output up. Data: built from Baník Ostrava's last 52 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 52.
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.15 | Draw 3.89 | Mlada Boleslav 3.59. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Baník Ostrava's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baník Ostrava 40% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Baník Ostrava 1.56 / Mlada Boleslav 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.948 / def 1.109 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.935 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.95x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baník Ostrava's last 52 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.89
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.71
1.15
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.15 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 26W 11D 20L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 27L across 57 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 15W 3D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.35 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Baník Ostrava (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 26W 11D 20L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 15D 27L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.78 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Sep 2026, when Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 4-0 Baník Ostrava.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
3
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Mlada Boleslav 4-0 Baník Ostrava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 48%, Mlada Boleslav 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Baník Ostrava) and 63% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Baník Ostrava's games and 67% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 63% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 78% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 0-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.