Chongqing Lifan 0-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 4 as Chongqing Lifan welcome Wuhan Zall to Suzhou City Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chongqing Lifan stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chongqing Lifan's home record at Suzhou City Sports Centre: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Super League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Zall have posted 1W 4D 3L from 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wuhan Zall are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Chongqing Lifan in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Wuhan Zall in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Lifan 59% and Wuhan Zall 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 59% | Wuhan Zall 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / defence 1.287 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.721 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Chongqing Lifan games / 14 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 38% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 31%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Wuhan Zall 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Lifan at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wuhan Zall (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chongqing Lifan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chongqing Lifan 38% | Wuhan Zall 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 38% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Chongqing Lifan 1.35 / Wuhan Zall 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / def 1.287 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.721 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Lifan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Wuhan Zall xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 07:30 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Chongqing Lifan 0 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 38% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Lifan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall in?
Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chongqing Lifan's attack rating (1.00) and Wuhan Zall's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Chongqing Lifan's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Lifan Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.22
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
2.54
1.19
Wuhan Zall xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.19 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chongqing Lifan's recent record stands at 3W 3D 11L from 17 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 5L across 17 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chongqing Lifan on 0.71 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chongqing Lifan have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Chongqing Lifan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chongqing Lifan are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 9D 5L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Lifan at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Chongqing Lifan's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Lifan at home: 1.25 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Lifan
1
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2022, when Wuhan Zall 1-2 Chongqing Lifan.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall?
Chongqing Lifan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chongqing Lifan 38%, Wuhan Zall 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Chongqing Lifan) and 50% (Wuhan Zall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan have failed to score in 38% of games; Wuhan Zall in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Lifan play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 62% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chongqing Lifan's matches and 50% of Wuhan Zall's.
Do Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Chongqing Lifan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chongqing Lifan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Relegation Round - 4, as Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 1.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chongqing Lifan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wuhan Zall landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 38% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 31%, with Chongqing Lifan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Lifan 59%, Wuhan Zall 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chongqing Lifan 0.71 PPG, Wuhan Zall 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.