Chongqing Lifan 0-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 38%, yet in-form Wuhan Zall provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chongqing Lifan welcome Wuhan Zall to Suzhou City Sports Centre in Super League (Relegation Round - 4). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chongqing Lifan stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chongqing Lifan's home record over their last 8 home games: 3W 1D 4L (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Wuhan Zall — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Wuhan Zall have posted 1W 4D 3L from their last 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.88 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wuhan Zall are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Chongqing Lifan in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Wuhan Zall in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Lifan 59% and Wuhan Zall 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 59% | Wuhan Zall 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / defence 1.287 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.721 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.287 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Zall's projected output up. Data: built from Chongqing Lifan's last 14 games and Wuhan Zall's last 14.
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 38% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 31%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 2.62 | Draw 3.22 | Wuhan Zall 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Lifan at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wuhan Zall (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chongqing Lifan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chongqing Lifan 38% (last 8 home games) | Wuhan Zall 62% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 38% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Chongqing Lifan 1.35 / Wuhan Zall 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / def 1.287 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.721 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Lifan (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Wuhan Zall xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Chongqing Lifan 0 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 38% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Lifan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chongqing Lifan's attack rating (1.00) and Wuhan Zall's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Chongqing Lifan's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chongqing Lifan's last 14 games and Wuhan Zall's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Lifan Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.22
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
2.54
1.19
Wuhan Zall xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.19 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chongqing Lifan's recent record stands at 3W 3D 11L from 17 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 5L across 17 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chongqing Lifan on 0.71 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chongqing Lifan have managed 3W 1D 4L from their last 8 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Chongqing Lifan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across their last 8 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chongqing Lifan are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 71%.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Chongqing Lifan (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 9D 5L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Lifan at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Chongqing Lifan's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Lifan at home: 1.25 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 3 January 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chongqing Lifan
1
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 January 2022: Wuhan Zall 1-2 Chongqing Lifan.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall?
Chongqing Lifan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chongqing Lifan 38%, Wuhan Zall 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Chongqing Lifan) and 50% (Wuhan Zall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan have failed to score in 38% of games; Wuhan Zall in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chongqing Lifan vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 62% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chongqing Lifan's matches and 50% of Wuhan Zall's.
Do Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 62% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chongqing Lifan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Relegation Round - 4, as Chongqing Lifan and Wuhan Zall drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 1.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.19 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chongqing Lifan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wuhan Zall landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 1.00 / defence 1.29 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 38% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Zall 31%, with Chongqing Lifan to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Lifan 59%, Wuhan Zall 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chongqing Lifan 0.71 PPG, Wuhan Zall 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.