Qingdao Huanghai 1-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Aerbin make the trip to Kunshan Sports Center Stadium to face Qingdao Huanghai in Super League (Relegation Round - 4). The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Qingdao Huanghai's record over their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Qingdao Huanghai's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 6L across their last 8 home games (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.88 conceded per game.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 0D 6L in their last 8 away fixtures (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dalian Aerbin are 0.60 PPG clear of Qingdao Huanghai over their recent games (0.90 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Qingdao Huanghai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 65% of games.
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Huanghai 29% versus Dalian Aerbin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Huanghai 53% | Dalian Aerbin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.18 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.774 / defence 1.487 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.845 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Dalian Aerbin's defence rating of 1.319 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Qingdao Huanghai's projected output up. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.487 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 14 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 14.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 26% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 45%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 3.86 | Draw 3.48 | Dalian Aerbin 2.20. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Qingdao Huanghai's last 8 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 8 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Huanghai 38% (last 8 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 50% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 26% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Qingdao Huanghai 1.18 / Dalian Aerbin 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.774 / def 1.487 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.845 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Dalian Aerbin xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Qingdao Huanghai 1 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 4) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 26% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Huanghai's attack rating (0.77) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.84x) against Qingdao Huanghai's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 14 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
26%
3.86
29%
3.48
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.80
1.61
Dalian Aerbin xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
5%
19.39
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.61 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Huanghai's recent record stands at 3W 1D 13L from 17 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 12L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.59 PPG for Qingdao Huanghai against 0.76 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Qingdao Huanghai have managed 2W 0D 6L from their last 8 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 2W 0D 6L across their last 8 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Huanghai are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 2.53 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.88 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Qingdao Huanghai have gone 3W 1D 13L in their last 17 games (0.59 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 1D 12L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Huanghai at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Qingdao Huanghai's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Huanghai at home: 0.75 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 3 January 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
2
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 January 2022: Dalian Aerbin 4-1 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Huanghai 38%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Qingdao Huanghai and 62% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Huanghai have failed to score in 50% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Qingdao Huanghai's matches and 62% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Qingdao Huanghai and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Qingdao Huanghai's recent matches and 75% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Qingdao Huanghai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Qingdao Huanghai 1-2 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 1.18 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.77 / defence 1.49 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 26% | Draw 29% | Dalian Aerbin 45%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Huanghai 53%, Dalian Aerbin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Huanghai 0.59 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.88 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.