Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Aerbin make the trip to Jinjiang Sports Center to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 9 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Jinjiang Sports Center this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Jinjiang Sports Center than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dalian Aerbin are 1.40 PPG clear of Shanghai Shenhua in recent Super League fixtures (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Shanghai Shenhua are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shanghai Shenhua and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 53% versus Dalian Aerbin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 39% | Dalian Aerbin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.752 / defence 0.858 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.019 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.436. Shanghai Shenhua's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Shanghai Shenhua games / 43 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 39%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Dalian Aerbin 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Shanghai Shenhua dominate the H2H record, yet Dalian Aerbin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Dalian Aerbin 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 9 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 / Dalian Aerbin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.752 / def 0.858 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.019 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Dalian Aerbin xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 9 December 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 33% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (3 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 3W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.75) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (1.02x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.56
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.38
1.26
Dalian Aerbin xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.26 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 16D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (17W 11D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.22 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 12W 8D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (7W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.29 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 22W 16D 13L in their last 51 games (1.61 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.76 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
2
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 48%, Dalian Aerbin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 56% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 52% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 56% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.26 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 39%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 39%, Dalian Aerbin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.