Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Aerbin make the trip to Jinjiang Sports Center to face Shanghai Shenhua in Super League (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Friday 9 December 2022 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dalian Aerbin are 1.40 PPG clear of Shanghai Shenhua over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Dalian Aerbin managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2022, ended Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Dalian Aerbin — a Shanghai Shenhua win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shanghai Shenhua and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 53% versus Dalian Aerbin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 39% | Dalian Aerbin 51%). Note also that Dalian Aerbin surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Shanghai Shenhua recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.752 / defence 0.858 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.019 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.436. Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 43 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 43.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 39%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.05 | Draw 3.56 | Dalian Aerbin 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Dalian Aerbin are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shanghai Shenhua 50% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Jinjiang Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 9 December 2022 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 / Dalian Aerbin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.752 / def 0.858 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.019 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Dalian Aerbin xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Friday 9 December 2022 at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Sports Center.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 33% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.75) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (1.02x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Shanghai Shenhua's last 43 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.56
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.38
1.26
Dalian Aerbin xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.26 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 16D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (17W 11D 23L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.22 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 12W 8D 5L across their last 25 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.29 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 22W 16D 13L in their last 51 games (1.61 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.76 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 5 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
2
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 August 2023: Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 48%, Dalian Aerbin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 56% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 52% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 56% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 68% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Jinjiang Sports Center, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.26 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 33% | Draw 28% | Dalian Aerbin 39%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 39%, Dalian Aerbin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.