Dalian Aerbin 1-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dalian Aerbin face Wuhan Three Towns.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Dalian Sports Center in Super League (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time.

Form

Dalian Aerbin (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Dalian Aerbin at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Wuhan Three Towns edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2022, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–4 Wuhan Three Towns — a Wuhan Three Towns win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 63% versus Wuhan Three Towns 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dalian Aerbin 57% | Wuhan Three Towns 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.96 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.057 / defence 0.999 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.404 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.411. Wuhan Three Towns bring a tight defence (rating 0.658, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dalian Aerbin's projected output down. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack rating of 1.404, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 44 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 30.

Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 17% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 60%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 6.03 | Draw 4.30 | Wuhan Three Towns 1.66. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 70% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 40% (last 10 away games).

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