Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 82% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beijing Guoan travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Hebei Zhongji in Super League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 0W 0D 10L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 10L across their last 10 home games (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 4.30 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Beijing Guoan have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beijing Guoan have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beijing Guoan are 1.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Beijing Guoan 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2022, ended Hebei Zhongji 1–3 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 51% of games.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus Beijing Guoan 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 59% | Beijing Guoan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.93 xG and Beijing Guoan 3.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.629 / defence 2.254 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.026 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.433. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.629 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 2.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 43 games and Beijing Guoan's last 43.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 7% | Draw 11% | Beijing Guoan 82%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 15.11 | Draw 9.12 | Beijing Guoan 1.21. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (82%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 82% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hebei Zhongji's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 40% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 7% | Draw 11% | Beijing Guoan 82% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.93 / Beijing Guoan 3.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.629 / def 2.254 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.026 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
3.31
Beijing Guoan xG
58%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Saturday 10 December 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 4 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 7% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 82% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (0.63) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 3.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hebei Zhongji's last 43 games and Beijing Guoan's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.1%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
7%
15.11
11%
9.12
82%
1.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
4.24
3.31
Beijing Guoan xG
15.11
7%
Home win
9.12
11%
Draw
1.21
82%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
4%
27.49
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
0%
–
33%
3.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.8 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 3.31 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Hebei Zhongji have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 7W 7D 37L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 23W 13D 15L from 51 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0.76 PPG from their last 25 home games (5W 4D 16L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 10W 4D 11L from their last 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 2.51 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.43 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 61%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Hebei Zhongji (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hebei Zhongji
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 37L in their last 51 games (0.55 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 23W 13D 15L in their last 51 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 0.76 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 10 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Dec 2022, when Beijing Guoan won Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
1
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 December 2022: Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 44%, Beijing Guoan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Hebei Zhongji) and 60% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 56% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Hebei Zhongji's matches and 60% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 80% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Hebei Zhongji 0-4 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.93 xG and Beijing Guoan 3.31 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.63 / defence 2.25 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 7% | Draw 11% | Beijing Guoan 82%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 59%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.