Beijing Guoan 1-3 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Dalian Aerbin at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium in Super League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Monday 5 December 2022 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beijing Guoan stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Dalian Aerbin have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Beijing Guoan have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2022, ended Beijing Guoan 2–2 Dalian Aerbin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Dalian Aerbin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 56% | Dalian Aerbin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.172 / defence 0.978 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.931 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.416. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 42 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 42.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Dalian Aerbin 26%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.97 | Draw 4.30 | Dalian Aerbin 3.86. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, matchday 29 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 December 2022 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Dalian Aerbin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.88 / Dalian Aerbin 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.172 / def 0.978 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.931 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Dalian Aerbin xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Monday 5 December 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 3 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (matchday 29) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 51% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.17) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 42 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.30
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.17
1.29
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
4%
25.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.29 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 23W 13D 14L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 16W 11D 23L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.88 PPG from their last 24 home games (12W 9D 3L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 5D 13L from their last 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.26 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 23W 13D 14L in their last 50 games (1.64 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.88 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2023: Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 67%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Beijing Guoan) and 54% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 71% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Aerbin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Beijing Guoan 1-3 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.29 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dalian Aerbin outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Dalian Aerbin 26%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Dalian Aerbin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 56%, Dalian Aerbin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Dalian Aerbin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.