Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 0 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 50% versus Hangzhou Greentown 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Hangzhou Greentown 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.01 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.808 / defence 0.828 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.326 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.440. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Shanghai Shenhua games / 28 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 24% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.00. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 24% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.01 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.808 / def 0.828 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.326 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Hangzhou Greentown xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 5 December 2022 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua 0 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 24% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.81x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
24%
4.25
26%
3.77
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.59
1.58
Hangzhou Greentown xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
5%
20.66
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.58 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 13W 10D 7L from 30 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 4L across 30 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.63 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 6W 7D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.77 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Hangzhou Greentown in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 13W 10D 7L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 15W 11D 4L in their last 30 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.87 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Hangzhou Greentown 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 47% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 73% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 47% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shanghai Shenhua.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.01 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.33 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 24% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 37%, Hangzhou Greentown 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.63 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.