Meizhou Kejia 6-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji meet at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Meizhou Kejia's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 2L across 9 games at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this term (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hebei Zhongji (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Meizhou Kejia's 1.90 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Hebei Zhongji's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 67% versus Hebei Zhongji 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 53% | Hebei Zhongji 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 2.14 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.173 / defence 1.154 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.705 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.258. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Meizhou Kejia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Meizhou Kejia games / 29 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 62% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 16%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Hebei Zhongji 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Meizhou Kejia (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 89% | Hebei Zhongji 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 62% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Meizhou Kejia 2.14 / Hebei Zhongji 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.173 / def 1.154 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.705 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hebei Zhongji xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Meizhou Kejia 6 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 62% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Meizhou Kejia's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Hebei Zhongji's attack (0.70x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 15/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.60
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.16
1.02
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
12%
8.51
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
52.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.02 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 5D 3L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 0.20 PPG from 15 outings (1W 0D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 4W 0D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 0.00 points per game from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.60 scored and 2.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 14L in their last 15 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 2.00 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji?
From 2 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 83%, Hebei Zhongji 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Meizhou Kejia and 67% for Hebei Zhongji. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Hebei Zhongji?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 67% of Hebei Zhongji's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Meizhou Kejia run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Hebei Zhongji 6-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 2.14 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.02 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hebei Zhongji landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.70 / defence 1.28, drawn from 15/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 62% | Draw 22% | Hebei Zhongji 16%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 53%, Hebei Zhongji 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Meizhou Kejia arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.