Chengdu Better City 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 47%, yet in-form Chengdu Better City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Shuangliu Sports Centre to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Chengdu Better City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 1L across 6 games at Shuangliu Sports Centre this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.17 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Shuangliu Sports Centre this season.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 0.70 PPG lead over Henan Jianye (2.30 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 56% versus Henan Jianye 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 39% | Henan Jianye 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.01 xG and Henan Jianye 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 0.871 / defence 1.141 | Henan Jianye attack 1.004 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.295. Data: 16 Chengdu Better City games / 31 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 25% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 47%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.13. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chengdu Better City (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 83% | Henan Jianye 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Shuangliu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 25% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.01 / Henan Jianye 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 0.871 / def 1.141 | Henan Jianye attack 1.004 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 September 2022 at Shuangliu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Shuangliu Sports Centre.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 25% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (0.87) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.00x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 16/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
25%
4.08
28%
3.53
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.48
Henan Jianye xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.48 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 7D 3L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (9W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.67 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 1W 4D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.72 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.72 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Henan Jianye away?
Henan Jianye's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.17 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 3-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Chengdu Better City 3-0 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 83%, Henan Jianye 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chengdu Better City) and 33% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 67%; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 17% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 33% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chengdu Better City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Shuangliu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 17, as Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.01 xG and Henan Jianye 1.48 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Henan Jianye attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 25% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 47%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 39%, Henan Jianye 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (18 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (18 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.72 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.