Meizhou Kejia 0-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Meizhou Kejia host Hangzhou Greentown at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Meizhou Kejia 2.20 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 62% versus Hangzhou Greentown 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 56% | Hangzhou Greentown 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 2.10 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.380 / defence 1.085 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.073 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.235. Meizhou Kejia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Meizhou Kejia games / 17 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 52% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 25%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 4.00. Meizhou Kejia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 52% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Meizhou Kejia 2.10 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 1.380 / def 1.085 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.073 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Hangzhou Greentown xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 52% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (1.38) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.42
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.54
1.44
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
12%
8.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
3%
32.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.44 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 8W 5D 3L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown's form line: 7W 7D 2L from 16 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.81 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (6W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 5D 1L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.62 scored and 0.81 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 2.25 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Hangzhou Greentown won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Meizhou Kejia at 75%, Hangzhou Greentown at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Meizhou Kejia and 38% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 88% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 38% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Meizhou Kejia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Meizhou Kejia and Hangzhou Greentown drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 2.10 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.44 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.38 / defence 1.08 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 52% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 25%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 56%, Hangzhou Greentown 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.81 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.