Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-4 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shandong Luneng 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2021, ended 2–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (38 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng trading profile (38 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66% | Shandong Luneng 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.18 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.962 / defence 1.072 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.315 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.281. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 31 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 51%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 1.96. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.18 / Shandong Luneng 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.962 / def 1.072 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.315 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Shandong Luneng xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 4 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 24% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
24%
4.19
25%
4.01
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.98
1.81
Shandong Luneng xG
4.19
24%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
4%
25.49
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.81 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 15W 6D 17L from 38 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 27W 7D 4L across 38 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shenzhen Ruby FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 11W 2D 4L across 17 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.11 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 15W 6D 17L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 27W 7D 4L in their last 38 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.41 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Shenzhen Ruby FC or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
From 6 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47%, Shandong Luneng 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 59% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 41%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 59% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-4 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.18 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.81 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.31 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 51%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%, Shandong Luneng 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.