Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown welcome Hebei Zhongji to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center in Super League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 28 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 home games (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hebei Zhongji stand at 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Hebei Zhongji away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Hangzhou Greentown have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 40% versus Hebei Zhongji 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 13% | Hebei Zhongji 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.896 / defence 0.733 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.745 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.297. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Hangzhou Greentown have a tight defence (rating 0.733), which is pulling Hebei Zhongji's projected output down. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 13 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 28.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 29% | Hebei Zhongji 17%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.85 | Draw 3.50 | Hebei Zhongji 5.73. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 6 home games and Hebei Zhongji's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 0% (last 6 home games) | Hebei Zhongji 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, matchday 15 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 28 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 29% | Hebei Zhongji 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 / Hebei Zhongji 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.896 / def 0.733 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.745 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Hebei Zhongji xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji FAQs
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji is a Super League fixture (matchday 15) (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 54% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.90) and Hebei Zhongji's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 13 games and Hebei Zhongji's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.50
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.15
0.71
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
4%
24.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.71 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 6D 3L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Hebei Zhongji sit at 0.20 PPG from 15 outings (1W 0D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Hebei Zhongji have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.67 scored and 2.87 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown (Home) vs Hebei Zhongji (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji Form FAQs
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 14L in their last 15 (0.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.83 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 26 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 November 2022: Hebei Zhongji 1-6 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Hangzhou Greentown 0% BTTS, Hebei Zhongji 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Hangzhou Greentown and 67% for Hebei Zhongji.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 50% of games; Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hangzhou Greentown vs Hebei Zhongji Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 50% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 67% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Hebei Zhongji matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 67% of Hebei Zhongji's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Hebei Zhongji 3-0 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.45 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.71 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.90 / defence 0.73 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 13/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 29% | Hebei Zhongji 17%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 13%, Hebei Zhongji 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.