Guangzhou R&F 1-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guangzhou R&F face Shenzhen Ruby FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Yuexiushan Stadium to take on Guangzhou R&F in Super League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Guangzhou R&F — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guangzhou R&F 0.60 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2021, ended Guangzhou R&F 1–0 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a Guangzhou R&F win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou R&F in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 48% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 52% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.48 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.756 / defence 1.411 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.930 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.300. Guangzhou R&F's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.48. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.432 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guangzhou R&F's projected output up. Guangzhou R&F's defence rating of 1.411 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output up. Data: built from Guangzhou R&F's last 32 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 32.
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 3.05 | Draw 4.03 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Guangzhou R&F's last 10 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Guangzhou R&F 30% (last 10 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 21 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.48 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.756 / def 1.411 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.930 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC FAQs
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou R&F 1 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 21) (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 33% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guangzhou R&F's attack rating (0.76) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guangzhou R&F's last 32 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
33%
3.05
25%
4.03
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
3.19
1.71
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.81
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.71 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guangzhou R&F come into this having played 40 games, going 9W 8D 23L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (15W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou R&F on 0.88 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guangzhou R&F's home form reads 6W 3D 12L across their last 21 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 21 away games (7W 3D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Guangzhou R&F (Home) vs Shenzhen Ruby FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Form FAQs
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 9W 8D 23L in their last 40 games (0.88 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 15W 6D 19L in their last 40 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 1.00 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 27 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Dec 2022, when Guangzhou R&F won Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F.
Guangzhou R&F's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou R&F
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Guangzhou R&F have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 December 2022: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 52%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Guangzhou R&F and 71% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Guangzhou R&F's games and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Guangzhou R&F's recent matches and 81% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.48 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.71 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.76 / defence 1.41 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.43, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 33% | Draw 25% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 42%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 52%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (40 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (40 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou R&F 0.88 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.