Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Changchun's People Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Changchun's People Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Changchun Yatai 1.20 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 59% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 54% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.99 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.961 / defence 0.872 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.006 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.291. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Changchun Yatai games / 31 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 56% | Draw 23% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 70% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 56% | Draw 23% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.99 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.961 / def 0.872 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.006 / def 1.494 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 10:30 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 56% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 1 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.96) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.27
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.12
1.13
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
36.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.13 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 39 games, going 16W 13D 10L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.31 PPG from 39 outings (15W 6D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.56 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 8W 7D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 16W 13D 10L in their last 39 games (1.56 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 15W 6D 18L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.63 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jun 2023, when Changchun Yatai won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 5, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 53%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Changchun Yatai) and 79% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Changchun Yatai's games and 74% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 37% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 79% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-0 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.99 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.49, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 56% | Draw 23% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 20%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 54%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.56 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.