SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan meet at Dalian Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record at Dalian Sports Center: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Beijing Guoan's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 0 for Beijing Guoan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 40% versus Beijing Guoan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 40% | Beijing Guoan 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.046 / defence 0.630 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.125 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.283. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.630 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 32 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 57% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 18%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 57% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 / Beijing Guoan 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.046 / def 0.630 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.125 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Beijing Guoan xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 57% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 0W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.12x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.96
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.71
0.91
Beijing Guoan xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
3%
34.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.91 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 23W 10D 7L from 40 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 12L across 40 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.35 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 60%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 23W 10D 7L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Beijing Guoan away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.25 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.10 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-1 on 12 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SHANGHAI SIPG
3
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 20%, Beijing Guoan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 65% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 60% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 65% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beijing Guoan defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat SHANGHAI SIPG 0-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.91 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 / defence 0.63 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.12 / defence 1.28, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 57% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 18%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Beijing Guoan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 40%, Beijing Guoan 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Beijing Guoan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.