Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Wuhan Three Towns to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center this season: 5W 3D 1L from 9 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.22 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wuhan Three Towns are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 2.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 44% versus Wuhan Three Towns 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.034 / defence 0.702 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.294 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.300. Wuhan Three Towns's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Hangzhou Greentown games / 18 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 31% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Three Towns 38%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 11% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 31% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Three Towns 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.034 / def 0.702 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.294 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Wuhan Three Towns xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 31% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 1.03x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.26
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.23
1.18
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.18 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 7W 8D 3L from 18 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 15W 2D 1L across 18 games — 2.61 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hangzhou Greentown heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 5W 2D 1L from 8 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 7W 1D 0L across 8 trips, a 2.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 3.17 scored and 0.83 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's attacking output running into Hangzhou Greentown's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 61%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Wuhan Three Towns in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 8D 3L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 (2.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.12 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.75 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 6, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 12%, Wuhan Three Towns 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 75% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 75% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.18 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.03 / defence 0.70 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.29 / defence 0.74, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 31% | Draw 31% | Wuhan Three Towns 38%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 28%, Wuhan Three Towns 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Hangzhou Greentown winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.