Wuhan Zall 0-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chengdu Better City make the trip to Dongxihu Sports Centre to face Wuhan Zall in Super League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Zall have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's home record at Dongxihu Sports Centre: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Chengdu Better City are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (20 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (20 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 60% versus Chengdu Better City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 75% | Chengdu Better City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.13 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.882 / defence 1.574 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.851 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.283. Data: 32 Wuhan Zall games / 18 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 24% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 50%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Chengdu Better City 2.00. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 90% | Chengdu Better City 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 24% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.13 / Chengdu Better City 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.882 / def 1.574 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.851 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Chengdu Better City xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City?
Wuhan Zall 0 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 24% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wuhan Zall's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (0.85x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.57x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 32/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
24%
4.18
26%
3.82
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.85
1.72
Chengdu Better City xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
4%
23.36
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.72 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Wuhan Zall have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 5W 2D 13L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 8W 8D 4L from 20 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Zall.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wuhan Zall have posted 0.73 PPG from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 6W 3D 2L from 11 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.05 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 5W 2D 13L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 8W 8D 4L in their last 20 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 0.73 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City?
From 2 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Chengdu Better City 3-1 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 91% for Wuhan Zall, 46% for Chengdu Better City — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wuhan Zall and 46% for Chengdu Better City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 46%; Chengdu Better City in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Chengdu Better City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of Wuhan Zall's games and 46% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 46% of Chengdu Better City's.
Do Wuhan Zall and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Wuhan Zall 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Wuhan Zall 0-1 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.13 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.72 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Zall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.88 / defence 1.57 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 24% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 50%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 75%, Chengdu Better City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (20 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (20 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.