Hebei Zhongji 1-4 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.

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Full Analysis

Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Hebei Zhongji versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 28). Kick-off: Wednesday 30 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 3.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

In front of their own supporters, Hebei Zhongji have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.90 conceded per game.

Dalian Aerbin's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Dalian Aerbin's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Dalian Aerbin are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Hebei Zhongji edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2022, ended Hebei Zhongji 1–2 Dalian Aerbin — a Dalian Aerbin win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.

Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus Dalian Aerbin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 57% | Dalian Aerbin 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.08 xG and Dalian Aerbin 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.667 / defence 2.105 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.874 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.384. Hebei Zhongji's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Hebei Zhongji's defence rating of 2.105 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Hebei Zhongji's last 41 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 41.

Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 14% | Draw 18% | Dalian Aerbin 69%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 7.37 | Draw 5.62 | Dalian Aerbin 1.46. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (69%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.08 / 2.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hebei Zhongji's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hebei Zhongji 50% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 40% (last 10 away games).

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