Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Dalian Aerbin at Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Dalian Aerbin have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Beijing Guoan have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Jun 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 2–2 Dalian Aerbin — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Dalian Aerbin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 60% | Dalian Aerbin 55%). Note also that Dalian Aerbin surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Beijing Guoan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.99 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.183 / defence 0.899 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.719 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.170. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 60 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 60.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 66% | Draw 20% | Dalian Aerbin 13%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.51 | Draw 4.89 | Dalian Aerbin 7.57. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 66% | Draw 20% | Dalian Aerbin 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.99 / Dalian Aerbin 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.183 / def 0.899 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.719 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dalian Aerbin xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 66% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.18) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 60 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.89
13%
7.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.75
0.76
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
7.57
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
55.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.76 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 28W 16D 16L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 16W 19D 25L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dalian Aerbin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 8D 7L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 7D 17L from their last 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.77 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 30 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 September 2023: Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 57%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Beijing Guoan) and 60% (Dalian Aerbin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 60% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 69% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Aerbin 2-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.99 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.76 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.18 / defence 0.90 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.72 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 66% | Draw 20% | Dalian Aerbin 13%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 60%, Dalian Aerbin 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.