Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Changchun Yatai (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shenzhen Ruby FC face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Changchun Yatai travel to Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium to take on Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Changchun Yatai — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Changchun Yatai away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Changchun Yatai are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 60% of Changchun Yatai's (from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Changchun Yatai have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jun 2023, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 1–4 Changchun Yatai — a Changchun Yatai win.
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66% | Changchun Yatai 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.698 / defence 1.611 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.907 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.181. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.611 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Changchun Yatai's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 59 games and Changchun Yatai's last 60.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 51%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.04 | Draw 4.09 | Changchun Yatai 1.97. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 / Changchun Yatai 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.698 / def 1.611 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.907 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Changchun Yatai xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 25% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 59 games and Changchun Yatai's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
25%
4.04
24%
4.09
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.73
Changchun Yatai xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
4%
22.68
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.73 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 12W 6D 41L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Changchun Yatai's form line: 19W 19D 21L from 59 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Changchun Yatai are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 0.87 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 2D 20L).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 9W 9D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.39 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.42 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 41L in their last 59 games (0.71 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 19W 19D 21L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 0.87 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Jun 2023, when Changchun Yatai won Changchun Yatai 4-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
5
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2023: Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 47%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 60% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 47% of games; Changchun Yatai in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 60% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 67% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.14 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.73 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.61 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 51%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 66%, Changchun Yatai 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.