Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Dalian Aerbin at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Wuhan Three Towns arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Dalian Aerbin's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) — Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wuhan Three Towns in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jun 2023, ended Dalian Aerbin 0–0 Wuhan Three Towns — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 57% versus Wuhan Three Towns 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 54% | Wuhan Three Towns 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.95 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.733 / defence 1.000 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.184 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.139. Dalian Aerbin's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Dalian Aerbin's last 61 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 61.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 26% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 46%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.79 | Draw 3.58 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.19. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dalian Aerbin 60% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 28 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 26% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.95 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.733 / def 1.000 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.184 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 28) (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 26% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.18x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Dalian Aerbin's last 61 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
26%
3.79
28%
3.58
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.30
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.35 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 16W 19D 26L from 61 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 13L across 61 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 10W 12D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 18W 6D 6L across their last 30 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.20 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Dalian Aerbin (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 19D 26L in their last 61 games (1.10 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 36W 12D 13L in their last 61 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.40 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 20 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 4-0 Dalian Aerbin on 25 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 October 2023: Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 67%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 63% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 63% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 80% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Dalian Aerbin 1-3 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.95 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.18 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 26% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Three Towns 46%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 54%, Wuhan Three Towns 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.