Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shanghai Stadium plays host to Shanghai Shenhua versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.30 for Qingdao Jonoon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 1W, Qingdao Jonoon 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 50% versus Qingdao Jonoon 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 42% | Qingdao Jonoon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.895 / defence 0.933 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.737 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.163. Data: 60 Shanghai Shenhua games / 26 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 53% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 21%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.76. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shanghai Shenhua 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 53% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.895 / def 0.933 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.737 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Qingdao Jonoon xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 53% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.90x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.74x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.72
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.25
0.80
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
5%
20.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.80 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 26 games, going 13W 6D 7L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 1.00 PPG from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 7W 4D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.23 points per game from 13 outings (0W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.19 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.92 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.23 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 46%, Qingdao Jonoon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Shanghai Shenhua and 38% for Qingdao Jonoon.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 46% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 38% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.46 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.80 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 53% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 21%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 42%, Qingdao Jonoon 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.