Changchun Yatai 1-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 40%, yet in-form Beijing Guoan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Beijing Guoan in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Beijing Guoan's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Beijing Guoan are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Beijing Guoan, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Jun 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 3–4 Beijing Guoan — a Beijing Guoan win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.067 / defence 1.023 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.137 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.206. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 59 games and Beijing Guoan's last 59.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 35%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.52 | Draw 4.01 | Beijing Guoan 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Beijing Guoan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.50 / Beijing Guoan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.067 / def 1.023 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.137 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 40% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.07x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.14x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 59 games and Beijing Guoan's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
40%
2.52
25%
4.01
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.91
1.40
Beijing Guoan xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.40 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 20W 18D 21L from 59 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 16L across 59 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.68 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 9D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 13W 7D 9L across their last 29 away games, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.69 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Beijing Guoan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.45 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won Beijing Guoan 8-1 Changchun Yatai on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
7
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2025: Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Changchun Yatai) and 66% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 66% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 79% of Beijing Guoan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan finished level at 1-1 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.40 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 40% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 35%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.32 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.